Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

Authors

  • Peter Kokol Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Maribor, Smetanova 17, Slovenia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5195/jmla.2017.98

Keywords:

Publish or Perish, Medical Library, Trend Analysis, Journal Impact Factor, Joinpoint Regression

Abstract

Objective: Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians.

Methods: The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis.

Results: The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies.

Conclusions: Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.

Author Biography

Peter Kokol, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Maribor, Smetanova 17, Slovenia

Professor Peter Kokol has a PhD in Computer Science. He is the head of Laboratory for System Design at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Maribor. He was the dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences and the director of the independent Centre for Interdisciplinary and Multidisciplinary Studies and Research. He has written over 700 technical and research papers and co-authored some textbooks. He was the President of the IEEE Committee on Computational Medicine. His main skills are in software engineering, health informatics, data mining and complex system theory.

Downloads

Published

2017-07-07

Issue

Vol. 105 No. 3 (2017): July 2017

Section

Research Communications